论安格斯·麦迪森对前近代中国GDP的估算——基于1600—1840年中国总量经济的分析

journal6 ›› 2010, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (2): 48-55.

论安格斯·麦迪森对前近代中国GDP的估算——基于1600—1840年中国总量经济的分析

复旦大学历史系

出版日期:2010-05-15 发布日期:2010-05-15

A Discussion of Angus Maddison’ Estimates of Pre-Modern China’s GDP in View of an Marcoanalysis of China’s Aggregate Economy from 1600 to 1840

Online:2010-05-15 Published:2010-05-15

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 本文对麦迪森关于前近代中国GDP的估计数据和方法进行了分析。我们认为,麦迪森的估算总体上看过于简略,在统计技术上也存在诸多不足,且存在明显的自相矛盾之处。麦迪森认为,1500至1820年中国人均GDP折合1990年美元为600美元,我们认为大约高估了50%—90%。对于前近代中国占世界GDP的比重,麦迪森大约高估了三分之一。

Abstract: This essay analyzes the statistics and methods that Angus Maddison used to analyze pre-modern China's GDP. The author finds the overall estimate sketchy with many inadequacies in the statistical methodology，and even some obviously self-contradictory points. Maddison believes that from 1500 to 1820 China's per capita GDP was equivalent to ＄ 600 in 1990 US dollars; the author believes that this overestimates the true figure by 50%—90%. With regard to China's proportion in the world economy，Maddison overestimates China's position by about a third.

刘逖. 论安格斯·麦迪森对前近代中国GDP的估算——基于1600—1840年中国总量经济的分析[J]. journal6, 2010, 0(2): 48-55.

LIU Ti. A Discussion of Angus Maddison’ Estimates of Pre-Modern China’s GDP in View of an Marcoanalysis of China’s Aggregate Economy from 1600 to 1840[J]. journal6, 2010, 0(2): 48-55.